North Korea unlikely to interfere in South Korea’s general elections: experts

This photo, provided by Pyongyang's Korean Central News Agency, shows the launch of the North's new Chollima-1 rocket, apparently carrying the Malligyong-1 military reconnaissance satellite, from Tongchang-ri on the reclusive state's west coast, June 1, 2023. Yonhap

North Korea seems unlikely to stage provocations to interfere in South Korea's general elections on April 10 as it has nothing to gain from doing so following its “two-state” narrative, according to analysts.

This contradicts Defense Minister Shin Won-sik’s remarks in January, where he suggested that North Korea might engage in various forms of provocations, including hostile acts both online and offline ahead of the elections, driven by its strategic interests.

Earlier this year, the Institute for National Security Strategy released a report titled "North Korea's Intervention in South Korea's Elections and Prospects," raising concerns that the North might stage provocations for political bargaining.

North Korea has a track record of staging provocations before South Korea’s general elections.

It carried out a series of provocations, including a fourth nuclear test in January 2016 and the launch of a long-range missile the following month, ahead of South Korea's general elections in April of that year. It also fired short-range ballistic missiles on four occasions in March alone, just weeks before the general elections in 2020.

On Tuesday, North Korea test-fired an intermediate-range missile into the sea off its eastern coast. It marks the North's third ballistic missile launch of the year following the first on Jan. 14, when it test-fired a solid-fuel hypersonic missile with intermediate range, and the second on March 18, when it fired two short-range ballistic missiles.

A military official said there seems no connection between Pyongyang's latest missile launch and the upcoming elections, adding that bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island or a nuclear test may be significant enough to influence the elections.

Experts said North Korea’s intervention ahead of the April 10 general elections is highly unlikely due to a lack of motivation and benefits.

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), predicted that there is a low chance that North Korea will intervene in the upcoming elections because it recently defined inter-Korean ties as a relationship between two hostile countries.

“North Korea recently called South Korea its primary foe and said it will no longer seek reunification with the South. This suggests that it wants to end all relations with South Korea, so it will not meddle in the South's domestic affairs. Why would North Korea, a country that has nothing to do with South Korea, intervene in the elections?” he said.

Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at KINU, agreed, saying that North Korea has turned more defensive lately.

“If North Korea stages a provocation, it will only consolidate the conservative forces. That is an unwanted result for North Korea because it detests the conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration,” he said.

The North has called Yoon “a diplomatic idiot” and “a guy with a trash-like brain.”

Hong also mentioned that Pyongyang will not want to risk its relationship with Moscow and Beijing.

“North Korea is forging closer ties with Russia and China. It would want to maintain the growing cooperation between the three countries, rather than degrading its relationships by provoking South Korea and posing a threat to the region. Also, it is unlikely to provoke the United States, especially considering the potential shift in U.S. policy towards North Korea following the presidential election in November,” he said.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, also expressed skepticism about North Korea's provocations targeting South Korea. He believes that even if North Korea attempts to intervene, it is unlikely to have any significant influence on the outcome of the elections.

“In the past, they did try to intervene in South Korea’s elections to support progressive parties that are generally more favorable to the North. But that was during the Kim Jong-il era. The paradigm has completely shifted. Now, there is no motivation or benefit of intervening in the elections,” he said. “Even if the North stages a provocation, it is unlikely to affect the election results.”

Regarding the possibility of North Korea launching more military spy satellites before the election, experts suggested that such actions should be viewed as distinct from attempts to interfere in the electoral process.

“North Korea might launch additional military spy satellites before the election, but this is likely part of their broader space development plan, rather than an intentional effort to provoke South Korea,” Hong said.

Lim said, “North Korea announced it will launch three more military spy satellites this year, so the launches of additional spy satellites should be seen as part of efforts to increase its national defense capabilities rather than being aimed at disrupting South Korea’s general elections.”

Meanwhile, the National Intelligence Service warned that there is a high possibility that North Korea could unexpectedly conduct military provocations or launch a cyberattack.