North Korea's ICBM launch complicates President

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol gets in a vehicle as he leaves his office in Tongui-dong, Jongno District, Friday. Joint Press Corps

Further provocations expected ahead of April's joint military exercise between Seoul, Washington

By Nam Hyun-woo

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's leadership of being put to the test after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gave his military the greenlight to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Thursday, marking a return to nuclear brinkmanship.

According to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, the North fired the missile from a location near Sunan airport in Pyongyang. The missile traveled 1,080 kilometers before reaching a maximum altitude of over 6,200 kilometers, attributes which place the projectile in the category of ICBMs.

The North's state-run Korean Central News Agency also confirmed on Friday that the missile was the Hwasong-17 ICBM and that its leader said Pyongyang should prepare for "a long-standing confrontation" with the U.S.

It was seen as Pyongyang's most powerful ICBM to date and marked an end to the Kim regime's self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and ICBM tests, meaning inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea relations have now rolled back to the status before Kim, President Moon Jae-in, and U.S. President Donald Trump engaged in peace talks in 2018.

The launch was also a sign that the Moon administration's peace efforts during the past five years were in vain. The latest provocation also tests the diplomatic skills of President-elect Yoon, who has been emphasizing South Korea's enhanced defense capability and stronger Seoul-Washington alliance as a deterrent to North Korea's threats.

In this photo carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Friday, a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile is displayed before a test launch on Thursday. Yonhap

"It was the 12th North Korean provocation and I warn North Korea that it will gain nothing from provocations," Yoon wrote on Facebook, Friday. "South Korea will strengthen its security preparedness to protect peace and freedom."

Yoon's spokesperson, Rep. Kim Eun-hye of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), told reporters Friday that the launch contains "two messages for the U.S. and South Korea."

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During his campaign, the President-elect pledged to strengthen a three-axis air defense system, comprised of the Kill Chain preemptive strike system, the Korean Air and Missile Defense and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan.

Kill Chain refers to a South Korea-U.S. strike system of identifying North Korean launch sites, nuclear facilities and manufacturing capabilities and destroy them pre-emptively if a conflict seems imminent.

Also, Yoon promised to set up additional U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries on South Korean soil, in order to protect the country from North Korea's high-angle launch missiles and other artillery.

The North bristled at those pledges and its radio outlet, Echo of Unification, described Yoon as a "warmonger." But Yoon continues to stick to a hardline approach on security issues. On Tuesday, Yoon said North Korea's latest test launch was "a clear violation of an inter-Korean military agreement reached on Sept. 19, 2018."

In this photo carried by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on Friday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, walks around the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile on a launcher near Pyongyang, Thursday. Yonhap

Against this backdrop, further provocations from North Korea are anticipated as the U.S. and South Korean militaries stage joint military exercises next month. April also marks the birth anniversary of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung. And this leaves Yoon with no option but to take a hawkish stance towards Pyongyang, whether his administration wants it or not, according to experts.

"Frankly, there are not many options left for the President-elect, President Moon and even the U.S. but to turn to a hawkish stance," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

"Since the North announced its intention to stick to its own nuclear development plan earlier this year, it did not hesitate in ending the moratorium, meaning the regime will likely pursue its goal of producing various nuclear weapons regardless of outside pressure. The only way that looks effective is joining other countries to impose stronger sanctions on North Korea, but this is also connected to the North's relations with China."

Park said sanctioning Pyongyang hinges on China's participation in the U.N. Security Council's efforts for North Korea sanctions, which is eventually dependent on Beijing-Washington relations and other countries demanding sanctions. The issue is further complicated by NATO members' claims that China is backing Russia's war against Ukraine.

South Korea will attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on North Korea, scheduled in New York on Friday afternoon (local time), but chances are slim that China will join sanctions. The Security Council held five closed-door meetings regarding North Korea's missile threats, but failed to come up with an official or binding response, due to opposition from China and Russia.

"From Yoon's perspective, the strengthening of South Korea's deterrence will be the first point, but he also has to think about a new paradigm in his North Korea policy, such as how South Korea can coexist with a nuclear-armed North Korea," Park said.

In line with such anticipation, Yoon's spokesperson Kim also said the President-elect will keep his pledge on additional THAAD batteries, although "the process remains to be seen."

To counter North Korea's emerging threats, Yoon is expected to send Rep. Park Jin, who is rumored to be named as his special envoy to the U.S., to Washington to have discussions with his counterparts in the near future.