What cards will NK, US play at summit?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un receives reports on the result of the recent U.S. visit by North Korean nuclear envoy Kim Yong-chul, at an office in Pyongyang, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency on Thursday. / Yonhap

Possible 'big deal' should include actual verification of NK's nuclear capability

By Lee Min-hyung

With the highly-anticipated second meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a month away, attention is growing over whether they can sign a possible "big deal" for denuclearization.

The pre-summit atmosphere does not look bad considering the series of positive signals from the two sides. By engaging in "letter" diplomacy this year, Trump and Kim exchanged their willingness for the meeting, raising hopes for fresh momentum in their denuclearization talks.

Washington and Pyongyang also held working- and high-level talks this month ahead of the summit to fine-tune the agenda and their differences for the summit.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently said "real progress" has been made between the two, while the regime's young leader said Thursday he got a great letter from Trump and will wait "with patience and good faith."

Trump and Kim held their first historic meeting in June last year, but at that time, no specific agreements were made in their ongoing talks on denuclearization of the peninsula.

For this reason, calls have grown for the two sides to sign a specific and big deal in a way to move the North's denuclearization forward in a verifiable way.

Experts said the possible big deal can be realized only when both sides reach an agreement in a way to allow the U.S. to carry out "actual verification" on the North's nuclear capabilities.

"The worst-case scenario is that the U.S. begins easing economic sanctions on the North without verifying its nuclear capability in detail," Shin Beom-chul, senior director of the research unit at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said.

"My view is that any deal, which includes agreements on verification, is a big deal," he said.

In May last year, North Korea demolished its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the presence of outside observers, in a show of its willingness for denuclearization. But critics argued that the event was nothing more than a political show, as no actual verification was conducted.

In an apparent move to reflect on the suspicions of international society, Kim pledged to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility with verification by outside experts during the inter-Korean summit in September.

But the promise has yet to be realized, as Kim urged Washington to take a corresponding step beforehand in exchange for a string of the regime's denuclearization steps, such as the dismantling of Punggye-ri.

To speed up the deadlocked momentum for denuclearization, the U.S. and North Korea are engaging in secret talks before the second summit tentatively scheduled for late next month.

"Both sides hold a set of bargaining chips to exchange during their upcoming summit to seek a breakthrough for the resumption of their denuclearization talks," Shin said.

"The North is likely to offer to not just dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear facility, but scrap its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM)," Shin said.

In recent weeks, the U.S. media has raised the possibility that Washington may sign the so-called "ICBM deal" with the North, as part of a short-term approach before complete denuclearization.

This is because the U.S. has viewed the North's ICBMs as one of the most threatening weapons, as they are capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

North Korean nuclear envoy Kim Yong-chol gives a letter from his regime's leader Kim Jong-un to U.S. President Donald Trump on a visit to the White House in Washington D.C. Jan. 18 (local time). / Yonhap

Even if the U.S. did not confirm anything about specific agenda for the upcoming summit, the possible ICBM deal is a plausible scenario for the U.S. to accept in consideration that denuclearization is a long-term process.

Washington is aware that it needs to keep the North at the dialogue table before reaching its final goal of complete denuclearization on the peninsula. Against this backdrop, the potential ICBM deal is not a bad one in that it allows the U.S. to remove a potential risk from the North.

The North will focus on seeking ways to get heavy sanctions imposed on the regime lifted.

"Pyongyang will likely urge the U.S. to allow the resumption of operations at the inter-Korean factory park, the Gaeseong Industrial Complex," Shin said.

This is because the reoperation of the now-closed complex can be realized after the North receives sanctions relief from international society.

Kim has expressed his firm determination to develop the regime's economy, and to speed up the drive, the North needs the support of outside investors.

"The North is also likely to demand the suspension of annual joint military exercises between the South and the U.S., in exchange for its steps for military disarmament," he said.

The joint drills have been a source of contention between Washington and Pyongyang.

With the North offering a gesture for peace last year, the allies suspended their major large-scale exercises, in their bid not to provoke the North.

Seoul and Washington have yet to confirm a detailed schedule for this year's exercises amid the renewed hopes for a possible breakthrough in the stalled denuclearization momentum.

"Other possible bargaining chips from the U.S. include enhanced humanitarian aid to the North," Shin said.